The Value of Rookie Picks
If you’re in a Dynasty League, you know all about rookie pick fever. We all get a touch of it each year. Shiny new toys are drafted to NFL teams, and we get excited about the possibility that they may take our teams to the next level. But what is the real value of these picks? Should you look to trade them? Stockpile them? Let’s take a look at what’s best for your team.
I like to think of the dynasty landscape as a stock market. Every player/pick has some sort of value. Unless you’re Dorial Green-Beckham. Or Matt Jones. You get the point.
Each year we receive a new set of “currency” in the form of rookie picks. But what is the best way to spend it? In some cases, that depends on the makeup of your team. If you’re in rebuild mode (more on that in another article), the best idea is probably to make your pick. You’re going to want a player with insulated value, meaning they won’t lose value in the near future. Also, if you are rebuilding, you most likely have one of the top few picks, which increases your chances of hitting big on a player. Historically, 1st round picks have about a 50% hit rate, and that number increases towards the top of the round. These types of picks could be pivotal in turning your franchise around. Even if you aren’t in love with a player’s long term value, you should have ample opportunity to flip him for a profit in-season.
If your team is a legitimate contender, you may want to consider trading picks prior to your rookie draft- but don’t get crazy. Never, I repeat NEVER, chase one year of production. I don’t care if you are 1 WR away from dominating, don’t trade your 1st for Larry Fitzgerald. I promise you, it doesn’t increase your title odds that much. You can’t account for injuries, coaching, game flow, etc. However, feel free to target core assets. Let’s say you have the 1.07 rookie pick. I PROMISE you, there will be teams itching to acquire it. Send out offers like the 1.07 for Stefon Diggs, or similar players that you like a lot. Or shoot for the stars. See if you can package the 1.07 with a transitional piece (think Dion Lewis) for LeVeon Bell.
Bottom line: Play the odds and assess risk. If you can flip a rookie pick into a core asset, go for it. Don’t worry about if the player you pass on turns into Jerry Rice. Most of them won’t. Don’t be scared to buy guaranteed production. On the flip side, remember that rookies will usually hold value throughout year 1, and may provide additional value, in the form of actual fantasy points or future trade value, somewhere down the road. Trust your player analysis, and don’t be scared to take a chance.
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