The Right Way to Spend Early Round Draft Picks
Jeff recently posted an article explaining how you should use your first round pick in fantasy drafts. He was wrong. Dead wrong. I’m here to set the record straight, and help you build a contender.
The gist of his article was that you should draft a QB in round 1. Aside from draft Defense and Kicker before the last two rounds (NEVER DO THAT), that’s the biggest mistake people make. He actually made the argument for me in his post:
“QBs account for 9/10 of the top point scorer’s in the NFL.”
Exactly. Which is why you don’t need to draft one in Round 1. The fact that we know 80-90% of the top 10 fantasy point scorers will be QBs, means we can wait to draft them, and still end up will solid production. Why not shoot for the 9th QB off the board? Chances are he will still produce at a very high level, and you can take an elite RB or WR in round 1. Let’s say you have the 3rd overall pick. If you elect to take a RB and wait on QB, you’ll end up with something like Zeke and and Carson Wentz. If you go QB at 3, you’ll end up with Rodgers and Jerick Mckinnon (unless you get really lucky). The falloff between Zeke and Mckinnon is drastic, while the difference between Rodgers and Wentz is not as large.
It’s all about Value Based Drafting (VBD). If you draft the best players, according to value, you are more likely to end up with a higher scoring team. Based on last year’s point totals, from Weeks 1-16, the difference between the QB1 and QB9 was about 5-6 points per week. The difference between the RB1 and RB9 was 11 points per week. That means taking Rodgers with the #3 pick will cost you about 5 points each week.
Taking it a step further, Tristan Cockcroft (ESPN) developed a table which shows how many fantasy points would be required for a QB to be worthy of a selection in each round.
This table is from last season, but the point stands. As you can see, you shouldn’t even consider drafting a QB until Round 4. Now of course, it is possible a QB has a historic season, and is worthy of a top pick. Peyton Manning’s great 2013 season netted 406 points. So that’s the level you are looking for. Good luck.
Another point to consider is that every year, every single year, QBs ranked in the 15-20 range will finish the season at top-10 QBs. Any the QB position is as deep as ever. Phillip Rivers is ranked around QB12, Jimmy G is ranked around QB13, Alex Smith around QB19, and Eli is about QB23. Yea I know, Eli is a complete fucking boob, but with Saquon, Odell, and Evan Engram it is absolutely possible he finishes in the top-10. The point is, wait until Round 9-10 and draft a high upside QB. They will be available.
So now that we’ve established how to tackle QB, what should you do with your top few picks? In Rounds 1-2, just draft the best available RBs and WRs. This year, I believe the RB position is stacked at the top, but then it quickly dies. There are 15 RBs I am comfortable with owning. So if one of the Super-Elites are available (DJ, Zeke, Gurley, Bell), I’m taking them. After that, it’s all preference. I love Saquon and Kamara, but if you’d rather have Antonio Brown or Hopkins, I get it. Selecting two WRs with your first two picks is risky, because it’s very possible you miss out on all 15 of the top RBs. However, it would be hard to fault somehow for going with Antonio Brown and Keenan Allen. The goal in these two rounds is to get elite talent. You can’t win a league here, but you can lose one.
Rounds 3-4 can be a little tricky, and they will shape your draft. This is where TEs and QBs come into play. Personally, I’d consider Gronk towards the end of Round 3. But he’s the only TE I’d consider. We know he’s locked in for a high target total, and huge TD upside. Outside of him, I’m not confident with anyone. There’s just too much risk for me. Sure, I think Kelce could be the TE1. And I think a healthy Jordan Reed could explode. But why take that risk when a player like Stefon Diggs will be available? If Gronk isn’t an option, I’m taking the next best RB/WR.
Now you’ve reached Round 4. If Rodgers is there, go for it. But from my experience, there is someone in every single league who will take him and a few others sooner. A lot of people will draft to fill a roster, meaning they will go RB, WR, QB, TE with their top 4 picks. Love these people. Cherish them. They allow players to fall to you. And because of this, there will be some rock solid WR options in this round. So ideally, I’d like to acquire 2 of the top-15 RBs in the first 3 rounds. Then, because WR is so deep, and because people reach for positions, I’m getting the best WR available in this round. And I’ll probably do the same thing in Round 5. Of course, if you went in a different direction in the early rounds, you can go another route here. You need to be able to adjust on the fly and take what the draft gives you.
Now you’re on the right track to making the playoffs. I’ll have more posts soon about how to handle the later rounds, and what to look for on the waiver wire.
In conclusion, I challenge Jeff to a friendly wager. In our upcoming redraft league, I say the #1 drafted RB and the #9 drafted QB (regardless of who they are) outscore the #1 QB and the #9 RB. What do you say?
What’s your thoughts on dual threat qbs? Potentially could have a bigger impact then Your traditional passer. I know the table is from last year but it doesn’t give those dual threat guys much credit. Would you reach for them before grabbing a brees or Brady?
Dual threat QBs have some built in insulation, so they typically have a higher floor. Still, none of them touch Rodgers in my rankings, so I wouldn’t jump for them in the early rounds. I may reach a bit for them in the middle rounds, though. I’d use the ability to run as a tiebreaker between two guys I like.
There’s certainly a great deal to know about this
issue. I like all of the points you’ve made.
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