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Securing The Bag – The Open Championship Edition

Ricky Tippett

We made it ladies and gentleman. The last major of the 2019 season is upon us.  FULL DISCLAIMER before I get started with the newest edition of Securing The Bag, this is The Open.  For myself, as well as several others in the DFS industry this has been the single toughest golf tournament on the schedule to predict over the last several years.  All we can do is use the data we have at our disposal, combined with a little luck, and hope things shake out our way on Sunday.  As always, this is a brief look into how I’m thinking, what my process will look like, and a general approach to try and get you on a path with a good outcome.  At the end of the day, you need to make sure you roll with the guys you like, so that Win, Lose or Lose big you can live with your decisions.

Contest Selection-

We get our $20.00 Millionaire Maker back after a short hiatus.  I’m still not playing it.  I have come to the slow painful realization over the years that a million dollar score is probably not in my future. If you want the sweat, and the dream, then by all means throw your 20 bucks at it and enjoy the weekend.  I’ll be looking in other places as mentioned below.

Typically, I’d give a full breakdown on the contests I prefer but with the earlier start this week things are filling fast.  Instead, I’ll provide a few contest selection tips so that you’re better equipped when looking for which contests to enter.

For most casual players building 3-5 lineups for a Major will be the sweet spot.  There are a few 5 Max contests that will pop up, but I wouldn’t hesitate to enter a 3 max and two single entries either.  The biggest tip I can provide from my past experience is to try and keep your entries all around a similar buy in, with similar upside.  I often see folks playing 1 expensive 50 or 100 dollar lineup and then playing an additional 3-4 in a 5.00 contest.  It’s hard enough to pick the right players and give yourself a chance, it’s nearly impossible to know which of your 5 builds will be the best of the bunch.  More times than not, you will kick yourself for playing the wrong lineup in the expensive contest.  Figure out how much total money you want to play on the week, divide it by how many lineups you want to build and target a contest at or near that buy in.

Plays of the Week-

Justin Rose $9,900 DK, $11,600 FD :

I don’t know if it was just a slow start, or if it was the dreaded equipment change but Rose struggled early and often in 2019.  Then, at the US Open, we see the former world #1 start to look a little like his old self.  He was a few putts away from challenging Woodland and Koepka to the finish line at Pebble Beach.  His tee to green game is rounding into form and when its there it’s as good as anyone in the field.  The price discount over Rory, Koepka, Tiger and DJ, combined with projected mid-low ownership sets Rose apart from the others at the top for me this week.

Francesco Molinari $9,400 DK $11,400 FD:

The defending Open Champion is getting zero love.  Molinari is pigeon holed in a price range between the Elite, and high-upside mid tier which is expected to be very chalky.  You can very easily start your build with Molinari and find yourself sacrificing very little to fit him in.  When the Italian is locked in, it’s hard to point to anyone in the world as having a better iron game.  I will personally be very overweight on Molinari in large field tournaments.

Matt Kuchar $8,700 DK $10,000 FD:

Kuchar has been chalk for what seems like the entire season.  In most cases though, he’s been very good chalk.  With a T16, T12 and T8 in the first 3 majors this season,  he’s been pretty much a plug and play top 20 player.  Kuchar’s excellent lag putting skills give him a nice advantage in link’s golf where he can use his precision pace to avoid bogey’s and grind out tough par’s.  It’s hard to recommend a player who could potentially be the highest owned in the field this week, but it’s also hard to fade one  who’s been playing as well as Kuch.

Patrick Reed $7,400 DK $9,600 FD

This is simply a spot where a player is too cheap to ignore.  Reed checks all the boxes for a solid tournament play, good form, low ownership, high-upside.  You could argue that the competition he’s played at recent event’s has been subpar, but Reed is also the type of player who generally elevates his play for Major Championships.  I won’t have him everywhere, but a share or two of Reed is certainly in the cards.

Emiliano Grillio $7,100 DK $8,800 FD

At this price we want cut makers.  Grillio has made 17 of the last 18 including The U.S. Open, The Memorial, The PGA Championship and The Masters.  This isn’t someone who’s made a bunch of cut’s in watered down fields, this is someone who has consistently made it to the weekend at a low price.  His upside is somewhat limited, but at a course that demands less of his short game he could put together a stronger finish than his price would indicate.

If you have any thoughts or questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RickyTippett.  Here’s to a profitable final major of the year, and hoping all you degenerates make some scratch.  L.F.G!

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