Be Spectacularly Wrong
Below I present to you, in all its glory, the championship trophy for my long-running redraft league.
I suspect none of you recognize the guy pictured atop the trophy. Well, that guy is Phil Bates. Phil will live on as a legend in our league. You see, he was a signed by the Seahawks as an Undrafted Free Agent in 2012. To my knowledge, he never made it on the field. But apparently during the 2014 preseason there was some buzz for the guy. In late August of 2014 we held our yearly fantasy draft. At the time, one of our league mates was a diehard Seahawks fan. As such, he just KNEW the Seahawks had a sleeping giant on their team, so he drafted Phil Bates at the end of the draft.
We use NFL.com to host that league. NFL.COM DID NOT HAVE PHIL BATES IN THEIR SYSTEM. He was not even draftable in a database ran by the league he played for. That’s what we call a deep sleeper. Like Ballroom of the Titanic deep. So we wrote Phil in, just in case the NFL decided he was actually a player in their league. On September 1, 2014 Phil Bates was waived by the Seahawks. Not even two weeks after our draft.
Why did I tell you all that? Well, for one, it’s funny as hell. But really, to explain that it’s ok to take your shot.
Our buddy took his shot. He was spectacularly wrong. But imagine if he wasn’t? Imagine if Bates made the team, became a starter, and finished the season as the WR18. Then he just gained a top 24 WR for free. His WR corps would have gained great depth, opening up trade possibilities or just flat out scoring more each week. He went for the upside play, which was the right call.
Now, you don’t need to go quite that extreme. Print out a cheat sheet and stick to the players on the list. But as you navigate the later rounds of your drafts, you should only target players with high upside. You want to draft Alvin Kamara. I grabbed him in the 15th round last year, because he had huge upside if he got the chance. That worked out OK for me. Target guys like that.
Once you print out your cheat sheet, immediately take red pen and cross out Frank Gore. He will in no way help your team. What’s the point of drafting a guy who is going to end up with 60 yards each week, and the random TD here and there? When are you ever going to play him? If you’re thinking he’d be useful during bye weeks, which may be true, that level of production is always available on the waiver wire. Always. Take that 12th round selection, pick a guy like Aaron Jones and move on. If Jones becomes the starter in Green Bay, you just struck gold. If not, drop him in week 8 and pick up a replacement level RB to fill in if you need it. It costs you nothing and at worst you end up with someone who is probably better than Gore anyway.
I recently posted an article to outline a strategy for the top portion of drafts. Check it out if you haven’t. I basically covered the first 5 rounds in that post. Rounds 5-10 is where I like to continue to stockpile depth at RB/WR, and I’ll typically end up with a TE and QB in this range (though at times I have waited on QB). But once you hit the double digits rounds, you want upside.
Don’t be afraid to be wrong. Find some guys who you like and target them. I don’t care if Mike Williams is typically drafted in the 13th round. You think he’s going to breakout? Take him in Round 10. Who cares if some guy calls it a bad pick? He won’t say that if it hits. Going back to my Alvin Kamara example, another guy in my league planned to draft hit in the same round I did. I got lucky that my pick came first. I got a little cute, and waited as long as I could. In hindsight, I should have “reached” a round or two to ensure I got my guy. Don’t miss out on your Kamara.
So what exactly do I mean by upside? I’m talking about players who’s maximum about is high. RBs who could finish with 1,000 yards and 9 TDs if given the chance. If LeVeon Bell got hurt in Week 1, James Connor would take that job. His upside is huge, because he could end up with Bell-like numbers if used in the same roll. Thing about the teams that win your league each year. They always have a guy you didn’t expect to be good. They rarely win just solely based on the fact they draft the best RB or WR. Last year that guy was Gurley. He was coming off a tough year, and fell in drafts. This year he’s the RB1. Finding this year’s breakout player will provide you with an extra elite player, giving you a strong advantage over you league mates.
Chances are you’re going to miss on a lot of the guys after round 10. We usually make waiver moves every week, and we’re dropping the late round guys that don’t hit. So go for the gold. Take your guy, and do it before someone else does. Don’t be afraid to be spectacularly wrong. It just might win you a title.
