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Securing The Bag – U.S. Open Edition

Buster

Welcome back to another installment of Securing The Bag.  It’s been a little while since I’ve provided content, mainly due to the grinds of MLB and NASCAR so far this spring, but with one of my favorite DFS Golf weekends of the year on tap it’s time to dive into the 119th United States Open Championship.

Contest Selection

We have an interesting change in the contest lineup this week with the Milly Maker shifting to a 100 dollar entry from the typical 20 dollar contest we get for majors. This should deter me (and mostly everyone) from playing the Milly, and I expect to see a better than average ROI this weekend solely for that reason.  I may still throw a dart or two at it, but I should have much less invested than normal.

My approach on where to enter is ever evolving.  A hard lesson to learn came at last year’s Open where my exposure and player pool was far too tight, and the cut line all but destroyed my hopes of turning a profit for the weekend.  When you approach a tournament this big, with massive field sizes you need to be aware of how much variance is going to exist.  No matter how strong your player pool, it often comes down to a few very basic things that are incredibly difficult to get right. You will need all 6 of your players to make the cut in almost all cases, and you will have to have the right combination of those players together for a lineup to take down a tournament.  Get exposure to the main guys you like, with different combinations of others whom you’re ok with having on your rosters.  Cut makers will be at a premium this weekend, which lends itself to a more balanced build over stars and scrubs.  I’ll dive into that a bit more in the plays section.

As with all Major’s, these contest’s will fill long before Wednesday night.  If you identify the contest(s) you like, reserve your spots now!

PGA $100K Drive The Green $5.00 Entry, $10,000 to 1st (150 Entry Max): Rarely will I ever advise playing in a 150 Max unless you have the bankroll to nearly max enter.  This IS however a Major, and we only get 4 of them a year. Rather than going overboard with your bankroll, a contest like this with big upside and a lower buy in makes sense.  The min cash is at 2x your entry and the pay structure up top is very flat, with 10k to win and a balanced drop down to each spot following first. 

PGA 100K Flop Shot $15.00 Entry, $10,000 to 1st (Single Entry) :  I think this one will fill pretty fast.  Decent buy-in amount for the average guy looking for a Sunday sweat, with a great prize pool and structure.  10% to 1st means there is plenty of cash to spread around up top.  Single Entry always level’s the playing field and is the best way to avoid the sharks. I’ll be in this one for sure.

PGA 30K 8-Iron $8.00 Entry, $5,000 to 1st (5 Entry Max):  The 5 Max’s are somewhat rare these days on DraftKings but when we get one they are a great spot to attack.  5 builds by hand is a great place for the casual DFS player to focus his time for the week, gaining exposure across 5 lineup’s while picking up some leverage over others in the field who will enter 1-3 lineups.  You don’t have to max this, but it is a great spot to spend 40 bucks.

Build Strategy

                The overall scoring for this tournament is expected to be much closer to par than we typically see.  In traditional US Open fashion, the USGA will have this golf course set on kill, penalizing players for the smallest of mistakes.  This will be a much more “gut check” type build than analytical for me.  We are trying to find 6 grinders in every lineup who we can trust to get up and down and avoid blowing up and missing the cut.  I will have a much bigger focus this week on guys with stronger short games and bogey avoidance.    

5 Max Strategy:

For this tournament I want my exposure spread out a little more than normal. I typically keep a tighter core than most in the industry and would have 12-15 different players in a 5 Max.  This week, I’m looking for a player pool of 20-25 and will try to avoid having any one player in more than 40% of my lineups. I think this is where you really lock in on trying get your 6/6 through the cut and worry less about picking the event winner.  With a projected “low points” week on DK because of the lack of Birdies we anticipate, I can see a path where the winner of a GPP doesn’t have the winner of the tournament in their lineup.

3 Max Strategy:

I’d take a very similar stance here as what I mentioned in the 5 max but with a smaller player pool.  Somewhere in the 10-12 range ideally avoiding anyone at 100%.

Single Entry Strategy:

You won’t have to get as cute in the single entry contests to have a big day.  People generally play it more conservative in Single Entry’s which means being contrarian is not near as important as it would be in the Millionaire Maker.  Go with your best 6 guys here, I’d lean towards being more balanced in a field like this loading up on guys between 7-10k. 

Plays of the Week

Justin Thomas, $9,300:

Full disclosure, I am a bit of a J.T. fan boy. That said, the upside you’re getting here at a discounted price is huge.  Thomas is coming off of a wrist injury which may or may not scare people off of him, but he looked fantastic this past weekend at the RBC.  Thomas check’s all of the boxes at a course like Pebble Beach.  Elite short game, and a traditionally strong iron player who won’t struggle to make critical par-saving putt’s in the clutch. 

Jason Day, $9,100:

This call is 100% based on Day’s elite scrambling ability. Like Thomas, he’s a guy I trust to grind out Par’s and not let this golf course beat him into submission. There’s also something to be said here for bringing Stevie Williams, former caddie for Tiger Woods among others, back onto the bag this weekend.  Day has a strong U.S. Open history, and while at different courses, he’s proved time and time again he understands how get it done at this event with 5 top 10’s in the last 8 years.

Tommy Fleetwood, $8,900: 

Fleetwood’s strength in this tournament is his all-around game.   He won’t lead many Strokes Gained categories but seldom will you see him below mid-pack. Although a much different golf course, it’s hard to forget the ridiculous 63 he shot in the final round of last year’s US Open at Shinnecock.  Tommy has the upside to have one of those crazy rounds, while providing us a good floor in major tournaments.  

Webb Simpson, $7,700:

Webb will be popular this week. What gets him overlooked at most event’s is his lack of length from the tee box.  At just over 7,000 yards he should be much less handicapped this weekend with the driver in his hands, which raises his floor significantly.  Another short game specialist with an even-keel approach, I trust Webb to make the cut and challenge for a top 20 spot on Sunday.  At his price that is exactly the type of performance we are looking for, and maybe why he’ll be so popular.

Jim Furyk, $7,200:

Similar to Simpson, Furyk’s length or lack of, won’t hurt him nearly as much this week.  The veteran has had a memorable 2019 campaign including a 2nd at The Player’s and a top-15 finish here at Pebble in February’s Pro-Am.  While I won’t be considering much if any information from the Pro-Am, it’s always a nice tie-breaker to use when torn between a couple strong plays.  Much like the others listed, Furyk’s overall strong game lends itself to producing a good finish on what’s anticipated to be a grueling test of every players overall skillset.    

Best of luck to everyone who rolls out a lineup (or a few) this week, and an early Happy Father’s day to all the dads out there.  If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @RickyTippett, with that said, L.F.G!

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